The Mets need to rebuild their bullpen. Who can help fix it?

The first string to unravel in a season-long unspooling for the Mets came last spring, when Edwin Díaz injured his knee celebrating a victory in the World Baseball Classic. New York’s bullpen held its own over the first couple months of the season before gradually falling apart; by season’s end, it was probably the club’s biggest weakness.

New president of baseball operations David Stearns has not been shy about restructuring that bullpen already. Eleven relievers who finished the season on the 40-man roster have already been moved, including Adam Ottavino, who declined a player option and became a free agent.

There is a lot of work to do in rebuilding this bullpen.

As in the past two days, let’s begin with what the Mets have coming back.

Age	G	IP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	K%	BB%	SD	MD	WAR
36	126	108 1/3	2.74	3.21	70	26.8%	8.8%	42	18	1.6
28	121	128 1/3	4.84	4.36	118	26.0%	9.6%	19	20	0.3
30	106	102 1/3	3.78	4.45	94	26.2%	10.2%	27	24	0.1
30	61	62	1.31	0.90	34	50.2%	7.7%	34	3	3.0
26	28	35 1/3	4.84	4.44	116	19.0%	9.5%	8	5	0.0
31	18	29	6.52	5.24	158	16.2%	11.0%	1	2	-0.1
28	15	17 2/3	4.58	3.57	116	30.8%	16.7%	2	2	0.2
29	13	10	8.10	5.26	194	25.0%	12.5%	2	4	-0.1

All of the charts in this story contain stats from 2022 through 2023 to get a broader perspective on performance; as opposed to starters and position players, I think a two-year sample is better than three. Age is how old a player will be next season. FIP is fielding-independent pitching, which evaluates a pitcher off of strikeouts, walks and home runs. I use K% and BB% because they’re better than K/9 and BB/9. Shutdowns (SD) and Meltdowns (MD) come from FanGraphs; they correspond to win probability. The WAR is FanGraphs’ wins above replacement.

It is not a deep group. Díaz will have the ninth inning while Raley can set up in some capacity. Smith is best cast as a middle reliever while the rest of the group is tenuous. The Mets have already been active in this market, claiming Penn Murfee (before losing him on waivers) and signing Cole Sulser to a minor-league deal.

New York should be looking to add multiple relievers on major-league deals this winter.

Tier 1: Closers

These relievers already are, have recently been or could be signed to become a team’s closer.

Age	G	IP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	K%	BB%	SD	MD	WAR
30	117	106 1/3	3.13	3.05	78	36.9%	11.3%	61	14	2.5
36	134	129	3.49	3.54	84	30.9%	10.4%	46	19	2.0
39	120	129	2.72	3.56	65	29.8%	11.3%	61	20	1.9
36	104	94 2/3	3.61	3.31	88	35.7%	15.7%	42	20	1.5
27	100	127	4.04	3.68	99	26.3%	12.2%	32	18	1.4
31	118	110 1/3	4.32	3.75	97	29.5%	6.7%	30	22	1.2
28	112	109	1.73	2.09	N/A	37.3%	7.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A

*Matsui’s statistics are from Nippon Professional Baseball.

The biggest addition the Mets will make to their bullpen is the return of Díaz. Thus, I find it unlikely that they invest significantly in most of the names on this list. Robertson was obviously willing to sign as a set-up reliever last winter and was terrific when pushed into the closer role for New York by Díaz’s injury. He was not very good after his deadline trade to Miami, and he’ll pitch next season at 39.

The other really interesting name here is Matsui. He’s been one of NPB’s best closers over the last several years — he’s the youngest to ever reach 200 saves in that league — and his strikeout rate really stands out. That rate is just about double the NPB league rate over the last two seasons — the equivalent of a 45 percent strikeout rate in the majors.

At 5-foot-8 and without Billy Wagner’s blazing fastball, the lefty Matsui doesn’t look the part of a traditional late-inning fireman. But like Kodai Senga, he utilizes a forkball to pile up swings and misses.

Tier 2: Set-up options

These relievers will enter the season as trusted late-game options.

Age	G	IP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	K%	BB%	SD	MD	WAR
35	113	126 2/3	2.20	3.29	53	27.4%	10.2%	58	16	2.0
36	127	122	4.43	3.38	104	24.0%	6.4%	27	18	1.7
34	127	108 2/3	3.73	3.51	89	27.8%	10.1%	34	20	1.4
33	125	132 1/3	3.67	3.72	92	27.2%	8.6%	35	20	1.0
38	132	127 1/3	2.62	3.66	65	27.2%	8.7%	36	22	1.0
34	125	116 1/3	4.18	3.82	99	24.6%	8.6%	41	14	1.0
37	28	27 1/3	1.98	2.14	50	31.5%	7.2%	14	4	0.9
34	115	98 2/3	4.29	3.98	95	22.4%	10.4%	22	22	0.8
27	56	54 2/3	1.15	2.23	N/A	27.5%	8.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A

*Rodriguez’s statistics are from Nippon Professional Baseball. He sat out the 2023 season to train for the majors.

It’s the lack of depth in this tier that puts the Mets in a box this winter. New York showed little interest in a renegotiated reunion with Ottavino — at least prior to his player option decision — and he’s one of the better names on this list.

Moore has revitalized his career after shifting to the pen, and he’s been one of the game’s better lefties the last two seasons. Brasier was bad enough in Boston to be let go earlier in the year, then was lights out the rest of the season with L.A. He also throws as hard as anyone on this list.

Like Matsui in the prior tier, Rodriguez is the intriguing unknown. A starter earlier in his career in NPB, he moved to the bullpen for the 2022 season and saw his velocity and strikeout rates jump and his ERA plummet. After a solid showing back as a starter in the World Baseball Classic for Cuba, he defected to the Dominican Republic, sitting out the 2023 season to better prepare himself for a major-league opportunity. That’s likeliest to come as a reliever, but some team could view Rodriguez as a potential starter.

Tier 3: Middle relief options

These relievers can pitch themselves into late-game leverage, but you don’t count on them in those spots on Opening Day.

Age	G	IP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	K%	BB%	SD	MD	WAR
33	124	146	4.07	3.44	97	22.9%	8.1%	27	27	1.9
33	118	110 1/3	3.92	3.04	93	22.7%	6.8%	38	22	1.8
33	115	122	4.06	4.00	91	24.4%	10.6%	35	24	1.6
34	116	106 1/3	3.47	3.54	86	22.5%	7.1%	28	17	1.2
32	114	105 1/3	2.56	3.78	62	25.9%	11.9%	29	13	1.0
31	109	103 2/3	4.17	3.75	102	23.7%	6.9%	26	26	0.9
36	92	84	3.43	3.98	83	24.2%	10.8%	38	22	0.6
32	89	93 2/3	3.07	4.11	73	20.1%	10.6%	37	18	0.5
36	120	107 1/3	4.86	4.03	116	19.8%	8.6%	24	26	0.5
31	135	131 2/3	3.42	4.03	85	26.5%	8.8%	33	24	0.5
32	119	110 1/3	2.77	3.93	70	21.8%	10.4%	40	17	0.5
32	66	61 1/3	4.84	3.50	121	26.6%	12.0%	10	9	0.4
33	99	91 1/3	3.84	4.37	96	18.0%	5.2%	26	18	0.3
33	71	74 2/3	3.74	4.69	83	18.7%	10.2%	18	13	0.2
34	103	92 1/3	4.48	4.44	112	12.7%	7.0%	19	16	0.0
37	133	114 1/3	4.17	4.38	102	27.9%	15.6%	21	23	-0.2
37	70	67 1/3	3.48	4.90	79	30.0%	14.6%	13	12	-0.3
28	78	97 2/3	4.15	5.06	101	22.5%	13.0%	9	10	-0.6
38	77	70	4.37	4.86	106	28.8%	8.2%	28	15	-0.6
33	79	82 2/3	4.68	5.35	113	20.9%	10.7%	13	12	-0.8
28	38	87 1/3	5.87	6.18	139	21.3%	11.0%	1	4	-0.9

And here’s where Stearns and the new Mets front office can separate themselves as evaluators. The middle relief options are a large chunk of ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Someone here is going to be recording eighth-inning outs in the World Series; someone else is going to be DFA’d by Memorial Day.

Since moving to the bullpen full-time in 2020, Stratton has averaged 60-plus appearances (extrapolating his 2020 rate) with an ERA 10 percent better than the league average. The spin rates on his fastball and curveball are among the game’s very best.

Stanek and Maton each pitched in middle relief for the stacked Houston bullpen; they could have been late-game options elsewhere. Stanek throws harder than anyone in this tier, and Maton owns one of the best strikeout rates.

Tier 4: Swingmen

These relievers can go multiple innings and perhaps make a spot start if needed.

Age	G	IP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	K%	BB%	SD	MD	WAR
37	99	128	3.38	3.34	79	22.6%	6.7%	34	14	1.7
34	111	136	3.57	3.91	80	19.2%	8.3%	25	18	1.2
34	45	80	4.28	4.43	96	23.1%	7.1%	11	8	0.1
30	22	92	4.99	5.19	118	14.9%	7.1%	6	1	-0.1
28	22	86 2/3	5.40	5.16	139	13.9%	8.0%	6	7	-0.7

The Mets will probably be more interested in the swingmen I listed on Monday with the starters, who are built to go deeper but can help in the bullpen, rather than the players here who are built for the pen but can help in the rotation on an emergency basis. Chirinos and Fleming, having both spent considerable time with Tampa Bay, have experience as bulk pitchers behind an opener.

Tier 5: Fliers

These relievers require a leap of faith, either because of recent/ongoing injury rehab or poor results.

Age	G	IP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	K%	BB%	SD	MD	WAR
35	63	62 2/3	3.02	2.88	76	34.5%	6.7%	38	7	1.6
30	80	83 1/3	2.70	3.29	72	27.9%	8.5%	13	9	0.7
29	55	50	4.14	3.63	104	18.9%	8.5%	14	11	0.4
32	87	69 2/3	4.39	4.15	106	25.0%	16.9%	15	9	0.3
32	64	53 2/3	4.53	3.63	122	26.8%	9.6%	20	13	0.2
30	63	57 2/3	6.09	4.08	146	25.3%	15.9%	11	11	0.2
28	59	71	6.46	4.93	149	18.4%	12.0%	11	6	-0.1
31	22	19 1/3	8.38	5.08	204	19.6%	16.3%	2	2	-0.2
27	11	36 1/3	5.45	5.00	134	18.9%	7.3%	2	4	-0.2
28	74	71 1/3	3.91	4.64	95	28.2%	9.6%	19	13	-0.3
27	11	15	7.20	7.31	186	26.9%	10.5%	1	2	-0.3
32	53	61 2/3	4.52	5.06	109	26.8%	10.7%	13	11	-0.4
26	14	33 1/3	7.02	6.53	170	22.4%	7.0%	2	1	-0.5

Hendriks is the big name here. He’s slated to miss the entire 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and thus is a candidate, like starters Brandon Woodruff or Tyler Mahle, for a two-year deal. Murfee, whom the Mets claimed off waivers earlier this winter, is back on the market after Atlanta claimed and non-tendered him. He’d miss at least a portion of next season after UCL surgery last summer. Martin (January shoulder surgery) and Trivino (May Tommy John surgery) missed all of 2023; Trivino would miss some of 2024. The lefty Hughes (June knee surgery) missed most of 2023 but was on a minor-league rehab stint when the season ended so he should be ready for 2024.

(Photo of Edwin Díaz in 2022: Dustin Satloff / Getty Images)